Predicting violent and any recidivism among individuals with a sexual offence history: A comparison of nine risk assessment scales

            Risk assessments for individuals with a history of sexual offending should consider the risk for violent and any recidivism given that these reoffending outcomes are more likely to occur compared to sexual recidivism (Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2009). The current study examined the ability of nine risk assessment scales (Static-99R, Static-2002R, BARR-2002R, PCL-R, PCL:SV, SORAG, VRAG, VRAG-R, and SIR) to predict violent and any recidivism among individuals with a history of sexual offending over 5-, 10-, and 15-year follow-up periods (N = 368). We also examined the incremental predictive validity of key underlying constructs contributing to recidivism risk in this population: general criminality, sexual criminality, and age. Results indicated that all nine scales significantly predicted violent and any recidivism with moderate to large effect sizes (AUCs ranging from .643 to .782). Both general criminality and age added incrementally to the prediction of both outcomes; sexual criminality was unrelated to violent and any recidivism after controlling for the other constructs. When assessing individuals with a history of sexual offending for the risk of violent or any recidivism, evaluators therefore have numerous defensible options to choose from.

BIOS:

             Julie Blais is an Associate Professor in the Department of Psychology and Neuroscience at Dalhousie University and the Director of the Forensic Psychology and Personality Lab. She has expertise in risk assessment, scale development, technology facilitated sexual violence, gender-based violence, and personality. She has published 60 peer-reviewed publications in high caliber journals in these areas of expertise. She has also supervised more than a dozen graduate students (both MA/MSc and PhD) and more than 20 undergraduate students. Her research has been funded through grants from SSHRC, the American-Psychology Law Society, Research Nova Scotia, and CIHR.

         Samantha Williams completed her MSc Applied Psychology (Forensic Stream) at Saint Mary’s University in Halifax in 2023. She is currently a second-year PhD student in Experimental Psychology at Dalhousie University, co-supervised by Drs. Julie Blais and Skye Stephens. Her research interests include victim choice polymorphism, the social determinants of sexual violence, and atypical sexuality. Outside of academia, Samantha volunteers as a labour and tenant union organizer and is bossed around by two of the cutest dogs known to mankind.